Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Not a Safe Haven, But Trump's Rising Odds Could Spark Rally

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Bitcoin 'Not A Safe Haven' But Rising Trump Odds Could Fuel A Rally: Standard Chartered

On October 3, 2024, Standard Chartered made an interesting point. They said that even with geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin is a good buy right now, based on call options data. However, they clarified that Bitcoin isn’t a hedge against geopolitical issues.

The bank’s latest analyst note suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price movements show it’s more of a hedge against problems in the traditional financial system, rather than geopolitical conflicts.

What Happened: The analysts pointed out that Bitcoin’s price drop amidst tensions in the Middle East indicates it is “not a safe haven against geopolitical concerns.” This aligns with their previous analysis from May, following the situation between Israel and Iran in April. Instead, they argue that Bitcoin serves as “a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses, like SVB in March 2023, or concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. Treasury.”

The note highlights a “circularity” in Bitcoin’s relationship with current events.

While geopolitical concerns might push Bitcoin prices lower due to risk-averse sentiment, these same events seem to be improving Donald Trump’s odds in the U.S. presidential race. According to Polymarket data cited in the report, Trump’s odds have increased by about 1% this week. Standard Chartered calls this “an interesting circularity for BTC.”

The analysts suggest this dynamic could ultimately benefit Bitcoin. Trump’s better election prospects are seen as positive for the cryptocurrency’s outlook after the election. They also point to a significant increase in Bitcoin options activity. Notably, “the amount of open interest for the Dec. 27 expiry at $80,000 on Deribit jumped by 1,300 BTC over the last 2 days.”

While Standard Chartered expects geopolitical concerns to potentially push Bitcoin below $60,000 before the weekend, they advise that “the dip should be bought into.” This recommendation is based on the observed options activity and the potential upside linked to changing U.S. election probabilities.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class will be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on November 19.

Crypto Whale Dumped $46 Million BTC As Geopolitical Tensions Rise: What Is Going On?

This content was partially produced with AI tools and reviewed by Benzinga editors. Market News and Data are brought to you by Benzinga APIs. Comments Posted In: Cryptocurrency News, Top Stories, AI Generated, Donald Trump Expert Ideas. Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports, and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.