Bitcoin Surges to $65K, Sparking Renewed Interest in Spot ETFs

Bitcoin Hits $65K for First Time Since Early August, Renewing Investor Interest in Spot ETFs

Bitcoin (BTC) is back to levels not seen in nearly two months as it pushed past the $65,000 mark during U.S. morning hours on Thursday. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap traded just shy of $65,400 at press time, up 2.7% over the past 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index was higher by 1.6% over the same time frame, with Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX) and NEAR Protocol (NEAR) all outperforming bitcoin's advance, but ether (ETH) modestly underperforming.

Bitcoin's rise began last week when the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed interest rates for the first time since the Covid pandemic more than four years ago, opting to cut by 50 basis points instead of the previously expected 25 basis point move. Traders anticipate another cut to come at the Fed's next meeting on Nov. 7, with current betting favoring another 50 basis point reduction, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“The more immediate catalyst Thursday for not just bitcoin, but global markets in general, was China, where authorities are reportedly considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into that country's biggest state banks in an effort to revive the struggling economy.”

China's Shanghai Composite jumped another 3.6% and is on track for its best week in a decade. European shares rose about 1% and U.S. stocks are also in the green, though off their best levels hit earlier Thursday.

With BTC's rising price comes a renewed interest in the recently flagging U.S.-based spot bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), for instance, reported large inflows on Wednesday, with investors adding nearly $185 million of fresh money to the fund, according to Farside Investors. This followed an inflow of $98.9 million the previous day and comes after weeks of flows that were flat to negative alongside bitcoin's poor price action.

Bitcoin Rallies Amid Positive U.S. Jobs Data and Reports of More China Stimulus Measures

Bitcoin has surpassed $65,000 amid positive U.S. jobs data and expectations of additional economic stimulus from China. Bitcoin BTC +1.90% has rallied above the $65,000 mark over the past 24 hours, buoyed by a broader stock market rally following positive U.S. jobs data and economic stimulus promises from China.

The equity markets experienced gains after Chinese leaders pledged to bolster the economy through additional stimulus measures, alongside favorable labor market indicators from the U.S. Last week, U.S. jobless claims declined by 4,000, dropping to a four-month low of 218,000, as reported by the Labor Department on Thursday.

Wintermute OTC Trader Jake Ostrovskis noted the significance of these developments, saying, "China unleashed another major stimulus measure, as the Politburo vowed to ramp up fiscal spending via $284 billion in special sovereign issuance and committed to implementing 'forceful' interest rate cuts. The improving liquidity environment is leading to structural bullishness, and U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted their fifth day of inflows." Together, these catalysts have pushed spot prices higher as the market retests the $65,000 threshold, he added.

Despite this upward momentum, Ostrovskis cautioned that the $65,000 mark is pivotal. If that level cannot be sustained, it may lead to significant downward pressure on prices. He noted that the current buildup in open interest could make the market increasingly vulnerable to sharp corrections.

Bitcoin Price Hits $65,000 as Investors Plug Half a Billion Into ETFs

The price of Bitcoin passed the $65,000 mark on Thursday for the first time since the start of August, and now stands at $65,325, data from CoinGecko shows. Over the past day, the coin has risen by 3% to reach the nearly two-month high, further rebounding from a rough early September start that saw the price of Bitcoin plunge as low as $53,000.

The asset's rise comes one week after the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. Bitcoin and other digital coins and tokens have since risen—alongside U.S. equities—as investors throw money back into riskier assets.

More traditional investors are getting exposure to the asset via the new Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—and have put money into the investment vehicles for the fifth day in the row, data from Farside Investors shows. Since the last time money exited the funds—last Wednesday, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke—nearly half a billion dollars, $496.7 million, has been plugged back into them.

Bitcoin tends to do better in a low interest rate environment, because such an economic landscape allows traders to take more risks. But the asset has risen significantly since 2022, when interest rates were hiked to historic highs and the coin hit a low of below $17,000.

Now, all eyes are on who will win the U.S. presidential election in November. Former President Donald Trump has been far more outspoken about helping the crypto industry; Democrat Kamala Harris has been quiet on the subject, only this week mentioning "blockchain" in a Wednesday speech after reportedly noting plans to support "digital assets" in the country during a weekend fundraising event.

Elsewhere, Ethereum, the second biggest cryptocurrency by market cap, is up by 2% over the past day and is trading hands for $2,651. Solana, too, has climbed by more than 5% in 24 hours and is now priced at $157.

$8 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here’s What It Means

Bitcoin is flying high on Thursday, topping the $65,000 mark for the first time since the start of August. However, markets are bracing for an $8 billion Bitcoin options expiry tomorrow that could trigger a bout of volatility, according to analysts.

This isn't an all-time high for Bitcoin options expiries by any stretch. The final monthly expiry ahead of this year's Bitcoin halving in April was $14 billion. But it's still the second-largest monthly expiry sitting on the books for Deribit, which accounts for $5.8 billion worth of the Bitcoin options expiring.

Approximately 20% of those contracts were "in the money" when Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers sent a note about it on Wednesday. But the split isn't even. Just shy of 28% of call options—which grant the trader the option to buy Bitcoin at a set price—and 9% of the put options (which give traders the option to sell at a set price) were in the money.

Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, said that at the current Bitcoin price, "The upcoming options expiry could secure a $1 billion profit for the bulls." He added it's common that derivatives traders who do close in profit tend to roll over, which would mean a lot of that liquidity would flow back into Bitcoin and could create some positive momentum.

That's good and bad news for Bitcoin traders, who will also be contending with the effects of a new personal consumption expenditures report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow. The PCE report, which is released monthly, tracks the price Americans pay for common goods like milk and a gallon of gas. Analysts are expecting the PCE to rise 0.1% on a monthly basis and 2.7% on an annual basis, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates.

Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes Rates His Market Prediction Accuracy as 'Pretty Shit'

Entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes on Thursday disclosed a 25% success rate in his market predictions, rating himself as only getting 2 out of 8 calls correct over the past year. But the kicker, he wrote in his new essay, is that he’s remained profitable by leveraging macroeconomic trends in the long term.

"So the Batting Average = .250. That's pretty shit to the common man," Hayes admitted in a blog, using a baseball analogy to describe his prediction accuracy. The crypto expert's self-reported scorecard covers major market calls from November 2023 to September 2024, spanning predictions about Treasury bill issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price movements, and central bank policies.

While acknowledging his struggles with short-term forecasts, Hayes reaffirmed his conviction in what he calls the "volatility supercycle" thesis, which underpins his long-term market outlook.

Just last week, Maelstrom Fund, the Hayes-led crypto investment fund, significantly reduced its holdings in the DeFi altcoin Pendle (PENDLE). The fund sold 1.59 million PENDLE tokens for a total of $5.62 million, at an average price of $3.52, over a span of two days. This sale appears to have led to a loss of $1.29 million, according to data from Spotonchain.

Hayes, who famously writes on market volatility and central bank policies, said he stands by his core thesis: Governments will continue to print money to suppress volatility, inevitably driving up the value of Bitcoin.

Despite his misses, including an incorrect call about the Bank Term Funding Program’s expiry impact in March 2024, Hayes argues that short-term forecasts matter less than being positioned for the inevitable monetary expansion. "The fiat required to keep volatility at suppressed levels will find its way into crypto," he contends, reiterating his commitment to Bitcoin (BTC) as the ultimate hedge against traditional financial systems. Hayes predicts that going forward, major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and People's Bank of China, will continue easing monetary conditions. He advises crypto investors to "sit back, relax, and watch the fiat value of your portfolio pump.”

Bitcoin Price May Drop Below $60,000 Due to Heavy Profit Taking

Bitcoin’s price has surged by 19% in the last few days, pushing it to $64,342. Despite this significant rise, the cryptocurrency is facing resistance at $65,000. A key group of investors, known for profit-taking at this point, poses a potential threat to the continued bullish momentum. Bitcoin’s rally could reverse if selling pressure escalates, leading to a decline.

Bitcoin’s price is facing the threat of a correction, largely due to the potential of selling. Signs of the same can be noted in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. A key indicator of profitability, this metric has reentered the danger zone after nearly a month. Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV currently stands at 6.3%, signaling that investors are in profit.

Historically, when the MVRV Ratio ranges between 2% and 12%, it often triggers selling pressure, leading to corrections. Investors tend to lock in profits when this threshold is reached, which could lead to a decline in Bitcoin’s price.

Another critical indicator, the short-term Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), suggests that short-term holders are experiencing massive unrealized profits. This group of investors, known for holding assets for less than a month, is typically quick to sell once profits accumulate. The NUPL shows that the bullish momentum has reached a level where short-term holders are likely to start selling, increasing the risk of a price drop.

Short-term holders (STH) are expected to begin liquidating their positions as the bullish sentiment fades above the current threshold. Historically, when STH are in profit and above the threshold, they sell off their assets, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. This makes a potential decline in price highly likely if this trend continues.

Bitcoin’s recent rise of 19% has brought its price to $64,342, with $63,068 now acting as crucial support. This level has established itself as a key area where Bitcoin could find stability if selling pressure increases. However, despite the recent gains, a breach of the $65,000 resistance level seems unlikely in the near term. If profit-taking intensifies, Bitcoin could drop below the $63,068 support, potentially falling to $59,666, the next critical support level. This price floor may serve as a point for Bitcoin to bounce back if selling pressure weakens. However, failure to hold this support could lead to further declines.

Conversely, if market optimism surrounding October continues, Bitcoin may have a chance to breach the $65,000 resistance. A sustained rise above this level would invalidate the current bearish outlook, potentially leading to further price increases and a continuation of the bullish trend.

Bitcoin ETF Demand Grows Among U.S. Investors as China Considers Massive $142B Capital Injection

Bitcoin traded above $63,000, experiencing a slight daily decline but a weekly gain, with BTC ETFs seeing significant positive net inflows, indicating a trend towards accumulation. China is reportedly considering a substantial 1 trillion yuan capital injection into its major state banks to bolster the economy, following the People's Bank of China's decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio and lower the repo rate.

Ether traded above $2,500 with a weekly increase, despite a small daily drop, with its ETFs also showing positive inflows. Meanwhile, WorldCoin’s WLD tokens surged by 14% following expansion announcements and developments at OpenAI.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded above $63,000 for the first half of the Asian trading hours on Thursday, down 1.4%, but up 2% on-week as inflows into BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain positive.

Asian stocks surged higher amid reports that China is considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into its biggest state banks to increase their capacity to support the struggling economy. This follows an easing decision from earlier in the week that saw The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cutting the reserve requirement ratio for mainland banks by 50 basis points (bps) while also lowering the seven-day reverse repo rate – the interest rate at which a central bank borrows funds from commercial banks – by 20 bps to 1.5%.

Data from SoSoValue shows that the total daily net inflow cracked $100 million for the second day in a row for the BTC ETFs. This marks a five-day streak of positive net inflow for the funds. That has flipped an indicator tracking 30-day net holdings among ETFs to positive for the first time in September, data from CryptoQuant shows, suggesting a rising trend of accumulation as opposed to sales.

Meanwhile, ether (ETH) is trading above $2,500, down 1.3% on-day and up 8% for the week. Data shows that spot ETH ETFs had daily net inflow of $43 million, marking a second day of positive net inflow